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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2018-08-05 04:38:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 04 2018 203 WTPZ41 KNHC 050238 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018 1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 04 2018 After having a somewhat impressive satellite presentation earlier today, the final GOES-16 visible images showed what appeared to be the cyclone's low-level center popping out from the northwestern edge of the convective canopy. Since that time, the remaining convection south and east of the center has become less organized, apparently due to enhanced wind shear associated with a linear band of convection to the northwest of the cyclone. This structural degradation of the system further complicates what was already a low-confidence forecast due to the depression interacting with the developing system located to its west. The 18Z GFS doesn't have much of a representation of the depression, and it is quickly lost in the model integration. The latest HWRF fields show the vortex being absorbed into the circulation of the disturbance to the west after 24 hours, and the HMON shows the system dissipating in 2 to 3 days. On the other hand, the 12Z runs of the ECMWF and UKMET maintain the depression into days 4 and 5, respectively. In an effort to maintain some continuity with the previous forecast while acknowledging the current trends, the new intensity forecast still shows some strengthening but at a slower rate given that the upper-level winds appear to be winning out so far over the warm SSTs. The official forecast carries the tropical cyclone through 72 hours with dissipation shown at day 4, but it would not be surprising if the cyclone dissipated much sooner than indicated here. The initial motion estimate is a somewhat more confident 295/10 given that the center was exposed right around 00Z. The track forecast reasoning has not changed, as the small cyclone should be steered west-northwestward by a large ridge to its north and the aforementioned disturbance to the west, which the model guidance suggests will strengthen quickly during the next couple of days. The new NHC forecast is a bit to the right of the previous one and is close to a blend of the ECMWF and UKMET models. Based on the forecast, any tropical-storm-force winds are expected to remain offshore the coast of Mexico. However, given the low confidence in both the track and intensity of the depression, interests along the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor its progress in case the track shifts closer to the coast or the cyclone strengthens and grows larger than forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 13.0N 95.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 13.4N 97.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 14.2N 99.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 15.1N 101.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 16.3N 103.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 19.0N 109.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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