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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-08-16 10:43:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 041 WTPZ41 KNHC 160843 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112020 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 The satellite presentation of the cyclone consists mainly of a circular area of deep convection with little evidence of banding features. Scatterometer data suggest that the system is just below tropical storm strength. Some slight strengthening could occur today while the cyclone is over marginally warm waters. However, in 1-2 days, SSTs should drop below 24 deg C, and this should cause the system to weaken into a remnant low in 2-3 days. The official intensity forecast is close to the corrected consensus model prediction. Although there is some scatter in the center fixes, the depression is estimated to be moving north-northwestward, or 340/10 kt. Over the next day or two, the cyclone is expected to move northwestward to west-northwestward along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. Later in the forecast period, the weakening system will likely turn westward or a little south of westward as it moves in the lower-level flow. The official track forecast is a little to the left of the previous NHC forecast and about in the middle of the track guidance suite. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 19.5N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 21.4N 120.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 23.3N 123.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 24.4N 126.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 24.7N 128.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 18/1800Z 24.3N 130.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0600Z 23.8N 132.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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