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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2017-08-05 04:34:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Fri Aug 04 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 050234 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112017 900 PM MDT Fri Aug 04 2017 The tropical depression is displaying a well-defined center of circulation east of decaying cold cloud tops as shown in the beautiful 1-minute experimental visible imagery from the new GOES-16 satellite. Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB - along with the character of the tight center - suggest that the maximum winds remain about 30 kt. However, the exposed center of this system is symptomatic of a highly sheared environment due to the 30 kt upper-level easterlies impinging upon Eleven-E. These shearing winds should not relent as a strong mid- to upper-level ridge over northwestern Mexico will remain in place. Additionally, the tropical depression will be moving into increasingly dry and stable air. The system should lose all deep convection and become a remnant low in a day or two, which is in agreement with all dynamical and statistical guidance. Eleven-E is moving toward the west-northwest at 11 kt, mainly due to the aforementioned ridge to its north. As the tropical depression loses its deep convection and becomes a shallow vortex, it should drift slowly northwestward or northward in weak low-level flow. The official track forecast is adjusted to the right (northeastward) of the previous advisory and is based upon the HCCA corrected consensus technique. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 18.6N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 19.3N 112.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 20.3N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 20.9N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/0000Z 21.3N 113.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
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