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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2018-08-05 10:50:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018 832 WTPZ41 KNHC 050850 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018 400 AM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018 Convection associated with the depression has increased through the early morning, but the system still appears to be sheared from the north. A pair of ASCAT passes between 03Z and 04Z revealed that the center of the depression is elongated and has reformed to the south, closer to the convection. The maximum believable winds in the ASCAT data were around 30 kt, and the initial intensity has been set at that value. Little change has been made to the track or intensity forecast, however confidence is low. The global and regional dynamical models all forecast that a disturbance to the west will develop later today and quickly become the dominant cyclone. This should cause the depression to dissipate as it becomes entangled in the other system's larger circulation. However, there is little agreement among the models as to when or where this will occur. On one hand, the GFS continues to insist that the depression will dissipate later this morning, while the UKMET shows two distinct cyclones through 96 hours. Further complicating matters, the close proximity of the two cyclones is affecting the trackers used to obtain track and intensity information from the dynamical models, and most of the dynamical tracker output can not be considered representative, especially at 48 h and beyond. Assuming the depression persists for at least a couple more days, the ECMWF and HWRF models appear to be the best compromise solutions, with both showing the depression accelerating northwestward between the disturbance to the west and a mid-level ridge to the east, before dissipating in 48-72 h. The NHC track forecast therefore leans most heavily on a blend of these models and the previous forecast track. The intensity forecast is based primarily on the statistical models, since the dynamical tracker output appears to be unrepresentative of the actual forecasts. Although the official forecast conservatively maintains the depression for 72 h, the cyclone could dissipate much sooner than currently indicated. Based on the forecast, any tropical-storm-force winds are expected to remain offshore the coast of Mexico. However, given the low confidence in both the track and intensity of the depression, interests along the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor its progress in case the track shifts closer to the coast or the cyclone strengthens and grows larger than forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 13.0N 96.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 13.5N 98.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 14.6N 100.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 16.0N 103.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 17.5N 105.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 20.0N 111.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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