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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2018-08-05 16:36:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018 621 WTPZ41 KNHC 051436 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018 1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018 Latest visible satellite images indicate that the tropical cyclone is gradually becoming better organized. The center is estimated to be on the northern side of a small circular area of deep convection, with a developing band of convection over the southern semicircle of the circulation. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt in agreement with the latest Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB. Since the center is still not easy to locate, the initial motion is a rather uncertain 290/10 kt. The primary steering mechanisms for the system are a mid-level ridge to the north and a developing cyclone to the west. It is not clear just how much interaction will occur between the two cyclones, and it is likely that some of the model vortex tracks are not representative in the 2-3 day time frame. The forecast track is somewhat north of the previous one but near the southern side of the guidance envelope. This is close to the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach, HCCA, track. The GFS and ECMWF global model predictions indicate that the circulation to the west of Eleven-E will become dominant. In fact, the GFS indicates that this circulation will absorb the tropical cyclone within a day or so. The ECMWF indicates that this absorption will occur several days later, and the official forecast calls for dissipation in 3-4 days. If the western circulation does not become the dominant system, then Eleven-E could strengthen more than indicated here, as shown by some of the other guidance. Interest along the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system, given the uncertainties in the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 13.5N 97.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 14.1N 98.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 15.3N 100.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 16.9N 103.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 18.3N 106.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 20.5N 112.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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