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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Discussion Number 5
2017-08-05 16:38:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Aug 05 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 051438 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112017 900 AM MDT Sat Aug 05 2017 The tropical depression lost most of its deep convection overnight, but a small burst near the center has occurred this morning. Since that time, the center has become again nearly devoid of convection, but I can't yet rule out that one more burst could occur later today. The intensity has been held at 30 kt, based on earlier ASCAT data, but this could be generous given the lack of convection. No change has been made to the intensity forecast. Vertical wind shear remains high, and cloud-drift winds from GOES-W indicate that upper-level winds near the depression are between 40 and 50 kt from the east-northeast. The upper-level winds are not expected to lessen, and the available moisture should decrease steadily as the depression moves farther away from its parent disturbance and into a much drier environment. Combined, these factors should cause the depression to become a remnant low as early as this afternoon. The forward speed of the depression has slowed since the circulation is mostly limited to the low levels, and the initial motion estimate is 325/7 kt. During the overnight hours that the cyclone lacked deep convection, it moved slowly north or north-northwestward, so the track has been shifted to the right. Otherwise, no significant changes to the track forecast were required, and the cyclone, or its remnants, should be steered generally northwestward in light low-level steering flow until dissipation. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 19.6N 111.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 20.2N 111.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 06/1200Z 20.8N 112.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/0000Z 21.0N 112.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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