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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Discussion Number 1
2019-09-17 19:06:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTNT41 KNHC 171706 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Eleven Special Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112019 1200 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Satellite, radar, and surface data show that the area of low pressure near the Upper Texas coast has become better defined this morning. The associated deep convection has also become better organized, and winds from the Houston Doppler Radar support an initial intensity of 30 kt. Based on these data, advisories are being initiated on a tropical depression. The system has very little time left over water in which to strengthen, but given the recent increase in organization, the system is forecast to become a tropical storm before it moves inland. As a result, a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for a portion of the Upper Texas coast. Regardless of the intensity of the system, the primary threat associated is flooding rainfall that is expected over portions of eastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana over the next day or two. The initial motion estimate is 005/6 kt. The cyclone should move inland very soon, and a general northward motion around the western side of a mid-level ridge centered over the Tennessee Valley should continue through tonight. The system is forecast to turn north- northwestward on Wednesday and that general motion is forecast to continue until dissipation occurs. The NHC track forecast follows the solution of the majority of the dynamical models. Key Messages: 1. This system is likely to produce life-threatening flash flooding along portions of the Upper Texas Coast, including the Houston and Galveston areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1700Z 28.7N 95.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 29.4N 95.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 18/1200Z 30.1N 95.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 19/0000Z 30.7N 95.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 19/1200Z 31.3N 96.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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