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Tropical Depression Emilia Forecast Discussion Number 14

2018-07-01 04:31:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Jun 30 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 010231 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Emilia Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018 800 PM PDT Sat Jun 30 2018 Emilia has been producing an area of deep convection southwest of the low-level center, with cloud top temperatures of -60C to -70C for the past few hours. As a result, Emilia is maintaining its tropical cyclone status for now. The initial intensity remains 30 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data. The cyclone should gradually weaken in an increasingly hostile thermodynamic environment with the shear increasing. Emilia should become a remnant low in 12 to 24 hours and the remnant low is expected to dissipate in 3 to 4 days. The initial motion estimate is 295/10. Emilia and its remnants should continue generally west-northwestward for a couple of days before turning more westward in the low-level flow prior to dissipation. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 18.4N 121.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 18.8N 122.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 02/0000Z 19.5N 125.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 02/1200Z 20.2N 127.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 03/0000Z 20.9N 129.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/0000Z 21.2N 134.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan

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