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Tropical Depression Emilia Forecast Discussion Number 17
2018-07-01 22:33:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 01 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 012033 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Emilia Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 01 2018 Deep convection associated with Emilia has decreased in coverage since this morning, and it appears that Emilia is finally well on its way to becoming a remnant low. The initial wind speed is set to 25 kt, which is supported by subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB. Emilia is currently over SSTs of 24-25 degrees Celsius and is moving into a drier and more stable airmass. As a result, the cyclone should degenerate into a remnant low later today or tonight, then continue to spin down and dissipate within 72 hours. The cyclone is moving west-northwestward or 295/10 kt. A west-northwestward motion should continue for a little longer but the system will likely turn toward the west as it comes under the influence of the easterly low-level tradewind flow. The latest track envelope has shifted slightly northward and the updated NHC track has been adjusted accordingly. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 19.7N 124.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 20.3N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 02/1800Z 21.2N 127.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 03/0600Z 22.0N 130.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 03/1800Z 22.5N 133.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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