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Tropical Depression Eugene Forecast Discussion Number 20
2017-07-12 16:52:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Jul 12 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 121452 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Eugene Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017 800 AM PDT Wed Jul 12 2017 Eugene is not quite ready to quit. Deep convection continues in the northeastern quadrant of the system, though this is not very deep nor extensive. Given the spin-down likely occuring since the overnight ASCAT scatterometer pass as well as the Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB, the intensity is assessed at 30 kt, downgrading Eugene to a tropical depression. The system should lose deep convection shortly as it moves over 21C SSTs and become a remnant low by tonight. By day 3 or 4, Eugene's circulation is likely to open up into a trough. The intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory. The tropical depression is moving toward the northwest at 9 kt, steered around the periphery of a low to mid-level subtropical ridge over northwestern Mexico. This motion should continue for the next couple of days, then slow by day 3 before dissipation. The track forecast is slightly east of the previous advisory at days 2 and 3 and is based upon the TVCN multi-model consensus. Swells generated by Eugene will continue to affect the west coast of northern Baja California peninsula and southern California during the next day or two, causing dangerous surf and rip current conditions. Please refer to statements issued by your local weather office for additional information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 23.6N 121.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 24.4N 122.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 13/1200Z 25.5N 123.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 14/0000Z 26.4N 124.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/1200Z 27.3N 126.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/1200Z 28.5N 127.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
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