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Tropical Depression FAUSTO Forecast Discussion Number 7
2014-07-09 10:40:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED JUL 09 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 090840 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062014 200 AM PDT WED JUL 09 2014 Fausto has continued to lose organization overnight. The deep convection associated with the tropical cyclone has become disorganized and appears to be separated from the center that was tracked in the last few visible satellite images. Recent ASCAT data suggest that the circulation has become elongated from northeast to southwest and that it has possibly become an open trough of low pressure. The highest believable winds from the ASCAT passes were 25 to 30 kt to the northeast of the alleged center. Based on these data, the initial intensity is reduced to 30 kt. Despite being located in a low shear environment and over warm water, Fausto has likely weakened during the past 24 hours due to the entrainment of dry mid-level air. Although Fausto is forecast to remain over warm water and in low shear for another 24 hours, poor thermodynamic factors should prevent restrengthening. After that time, westerly shear is forecast to increase which should cause the final demise of Fausto, if it does not occur sooner. One very possible scenario is for the circulation to dissipate and become an open trough within the next 24 hours. This solution is generally favored by the GFS and ECMWF models. The somewhat uncertain initial motion estimate is 285 degrees at 16 kt. Fausto should continue moving west-northwestward to westward during the next several days to the south of a strong low- to mid-level ridge. The track guidance agrees on this scenario but has shifted southward this cycle. Since the updated NHC intensity forecast predicts a weaker and shallower system, it is more likely that Fausto or its remnants will move more westward. As a result, the NHC track has been adjusted southward. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 11.4N 128.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 11.9N 130.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 12.5N 134.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 13.0N 137.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 13.5N 140.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/0600Z 14.5N 145.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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