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Tropical Depression FIVE-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2016-07-12 04:43:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT MON JUL 11 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 120243 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016 900 PM MDT MON JUL 11 2016 Convective banding associated with Five-E has increased in organization this evening. Accordingly, the SAB and TAFB Dvorak current intensity numbers have increased to a 2.0 from both agencies, corresponding to an intensity of 30 kt. Earlier scatterometer data suggested higher winds than given by Dvorak estimates, however, so the system may already be a tropical storm. The environment in which Five-E is moving over and through - quite warm SSTs, a very moist atmosphere, and moderate to low tropospheric vertical shear - is likely to promote steady intensification during the next three days. Around days 4 and 5, however, the cyclone should be encountering the cool wake produced by Hurricanes Blas and Celia. This sub-26 deg C water and more stable environment may cause the system to gradually weaken at that time. The intensity forecast is closest to an HWRF dynamical/SHIPS statistical model blend through 72 h, and to SHIPS alone at days 4 and 5, and is very similar to that from the previous advisory. The tropical cyclone is moving at 320/8 kt, though the current position and motion are somewhat uncertain because of the lack of useful microwave imagery passes this evening. The system should bend to a due west heading by tomorrow, as the deep-layer ridge to its north builds in and strengthens. The model guidance is tightly clustered through all five days and the NHC track prediction is nearly the same as that from the previous advisory. The tropical cyclone will remain out to sea with no threat to land for the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 15.7N 106.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 16.1N 108.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 16.2N 110.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 16.1N 112.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 16.0N 114.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 16.0N 119.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 16/0000Z 16.8N 123.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 17/0000Z 18.0N 127.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Landsea
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