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Tropical Depression FIVE-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2016-07-12 10:49:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT TUE JUL 12 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 120849 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016 300 AM MDT TUE JUL 12 2016 Satellite images indicate little overall change to the depression during the past several hours. Convection has been flaring up and down without any apparent increase in organization. A pair of ASCAT passes showed maximum winds of 25 to 30 kt, so the initial wind speed will stay 30 kt. The initial motion has turned west-northwestward, and recently the depression may even be moving due westward. A westward or west- southwestward course is expected for the next 2-3 days due to a building ridge over the eastern Pacific. Thereafter the system should resume a track toward the west or west-northwest, with some differences noted in the strength of the ridge at long range. Overall, the model consensus has generally shifted southward by about 30 n mi at most time intervals, and the official forecast will follow that trend. The intensity forecast is tricky since it is becoming more related to the track forecast. While the overall environment looks conducive for strengthening for a few days, the southward shift in the cyclone's predicted path increases the chances that the system encounters the cool wake of Blas and Celia. For now it is expected to stay just to the north, so only a slight reduction is made to the previous official forecast. The latest forecast is similar to the intensity consensus for the first couple days, and remains above that at longer range, mostly out of respect for a rather low-shear environment forecast by the global models by late week. It is worth noting, and probably should be no surprise, that the intensity guidance has a rather wide range for this forecast, with the GFS-based COAMPS-TC model showing no significant strengthening and the HWRF model making the cyclone a hurricane in 36 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 15.8N 107.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 15.9N 108.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 15.7N 110.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 15.5N 113.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 15.5N 115.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 15.9N 119.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 16.6N 123.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 17/0600Z 17.5N 127.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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