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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2014-06-28 22:45:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT JUN 28 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 282045 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 200 PM PDT SAT JUN 28 2014 Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure southwest of Mexico has enough banded convective organization and center definition to be declared a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt, in agreement with an ASCAT-B pass from 1602 UTC. The large-scale environment looks favorable for strengthening, with an upper-level anticyclone located just east of the center, along with plenty of warm water. However, the depression has a rather large circulation envelope and radius of maximum winds, which could preclude anything more than gradual strengthening. Guidance is split, with the LGEM/SHIPS showing a strong tropical storm, while the HWRF/GFDL keep the system weaker through the first few days of the forecast. The NHC prediction is a little below the intensity consensus at first to account for the initial structure, then is above the consensus on Days 2/3 under the assumption the system eventually consolidates. Some weakening seems likely at longer ranges due to cooler waters and possible dry air aloft. The initial motion of the cyclone is 295/10. A ridge currently over the eastern Pacific and northern Mexico is forecast to build eastward and strengthen over the next couple of days, which should cause the cyclone to accelerate and take a slight leftward bend by Monday. The guidance is in good agreement and the NHC track forecast is close to the model consensus during this time. Afterward, there is much uncertainty in the forecast due to a possible interaction with invest EP97 to the east, along with the ridge likely weakening along 120W. The model solutions become rather divergent, ranging from a slow southward motion from the HWRF/GFDL to a moderate westward motion from the ECMWF/GEFS. The NHC forecast at long range will show a slow westward course, more in line with the ECMWF/GEFS solutions, and is west of the track consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 14.5N 105.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 15.3N 107.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 16.1N 110.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 16.7N 113.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 17.1N 114.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 17.5N 116.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 02/1800Z 17.5N 118.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 03/1800Z 17.5N 120.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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