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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2016-07-06 22:35:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT WED JUL 06 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 062034 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 300 PM MDT WED JUL 06 2016 Satellite imagery indicates that the low pressure area located well southwest of the coast of Mexico now has a well-defined circulation and sufficient organized convection to be designated a tropical depression. Thus, advisories are initiated on Tropical Depression Four-E with an initial intensity of 30 kt. The depression is moving westward or 280 degrees at 7 kt. A weak low- to mid-level ridge should steer the cyclone westward at a less than climatological forward speed for the next 3-4 days, followed by a west-northwestward motion by day 5. The track forecast guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, and the track forecast is in the center of the guidance envelope. The dynamical models forecast that the cyclone will be in an environment of light vertical wind shear for the next five days. However, it is forecast to cross an area of cooler water, possibly a cold wake left by Hurricane Blas, during the next 72 hours. This is expected to allow only slow intensification during that time. Subsequently, the cyclone should move over warmer water and strengthen at a faster rate. The intensity forecast is in best agreement with the SHIPS model, and it calls for the cyclone to become a tropical storm in about 24 hours and a hurricane in about 96 hours. An alternative scenario is that the cyclone strengthens faster than currently forecast due to the conducive shear environment. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 12.2N 109.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 12.3N 110.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 12.3N 111.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 12.5N 112.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 12.5N 114.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 12.5N 117.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 13.0N 120.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 14.5N 123.5W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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