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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2014-06-29 10:32:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN JUN 29 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 290832 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 200 AM PDT SUN JUN 29 2014 The tropical cyclone remains rather broad and sprawling early this morning, with some deep convective banding features trying to develop. Data from an ASCAT overpass suggests that the system does not yet have strong winds very close to the center, and that it is below tropical storm strength. This is also in agreement with Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. The current intensity is held at 30 kt based on those estimates. The depression continues to move fairly quickly toward the west-northwest, or about 290/14, due to a strong mid-level high pressure area that is currently situated to the north of the cyclone. Global models predict that this high pressure area will shift westward during the next few days, with a mid-level weakness developing to the north of the tropical cyclone later in the forecast period. Consequently, the system should gradually slow its forward speed within the next couple of days. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and fairly close to the latest ECMWF solution. The broad nature of the cyclone and lack of an inner core argues against any rapid strengthening. Nonetheless, vertical shear is forecast to remain low and the system will be traversing sufficiently warm waters to allow for strengthening during the next few days. The official wind speed forecast is very similar to the latest Decay-SHIPS guidance through 72 hours and close to the intensity model consensus thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 15.3N 108.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 16.0N 110.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 16.7N 113.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 17.2N 114.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 17.6N 116.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 02/0600Z 18.0N 117.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 03/0600Z 18.0N 118.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 04/0600Z 17.5N 120.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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