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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Forecast Discussion Number 7
2016-07-08 10:38:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT FRI JUL 08 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 080838 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 300 AM MDT FRI JUL 08 2016 The cloud pattern of the depression is showing signs of becoming better organized. There has been an increase in central convection near the estimated center location and in convective banding to the north and southeast of the center. The initial intensity remains 30 kt based on a blend of the latest TAFB and SAB Dvorak estimates. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, while the cyclone moves over a cool patch of SSTs in the wake of Hurricane Blas. After that time, the intensification rate should increase as the cyclone will be moving over warm SSTs in a low shear environment. In 4 to 5 days, the shear is expected to increase and SSTs cool along the track, which should result in weakening. The new NHC intensity forecast is a little below the consensus aid IVCN during the first 24 hours and then close to the consensus through 48 hours. Beyond that time the official forecast is higher than the consensus but not as aggressive as the SHIPS model. The initial motion estimate is a rather uncertain 275/05 given the uncertainty in the exact center location. The cyclone should be steered more quickly westward by a building subtropical ridge to the north through the next 2 to 3 days. After that time, a west- northwestward turn is forecast as the system reaches the southwestern edge of the ridge. The guidance has shifted northward this cycle in the short term, in particular the ECMWF, which is now well north of the rest of the models through 48 hours. The new NHC track has been adjusted to the north this cycle, but still lies a little south of the multi-model consensus. Confidence in the details of the track forecast is lower than normal given that the system is still organizing. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 12.5N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 12.7N 113.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 13.0N 115.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 13.2N 116.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 13.5N 119.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 14.2N 123.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 15.7N 127.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 13/0600Z 17.3N 131.2W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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