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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 11
2017-09-14 10:34:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Sep 14 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 140834 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 200 AM PDT Thu Sep 14 2017 The depression continues to be disorganized with the low- and middle-level centers well separated due to shear. This can be clearly observed on conventional imagery as well as microwave data. Given the lack of organization, the initial intensity is kept at 30 kt, and no change in strength is anticipated during the next 24 hours or so. After that time, the shear is forecast to decrease, and the depression could become better organized and reach tropical storm status. This is the scenario provided by most of the guidance. My best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at 4 kt. The depression continues to be trapped within weak steering flow, and only a small westward drift is forecast. In fact, by the end of the forecast period, the steering currents are expected to collapse, and the cyclone will probably begin to meander. The NHC forecast follows most of the guidance up to 4 days. After that time, models diverge considerably and the forecast is highly uncertain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 15.3N 122.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 15.5N 123.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 15.5N 124.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 15.5N 124.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 15.5N 125.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 15.5N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 18/0600Z 15.5N 125.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 19/0600Z 16.5N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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