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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 12
2017-09-14 16:34:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Sep 14 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 141434 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 800 AM PDT Thu Sep 14 2017 The depression is still poorly organized, as about 15 kt of easterly shear continues to separate the low- and mid-level circulation centers. The initial intensity remains 30 kt given that the cloud pattern has not changed much since the previous advisory. The SHIPS model shows the shear relaxing by 24 hours, and with the cyclone over 27-28C water, some slow strengthening is predicted. The cyclone begins to move into a drier and more stable airmass by days 4 and 5, with the shear possibly increasing again, so some weakening is expected by day 5. The initial motion estimate is a rather uncertain 280/04 since there haven't been any recent microwave passes. The depression is currently situated south of a narrow mid-level ridge. This feature weakens with time, leaving the cyclone is a region of weak steering currents, with most of the guidance favoring some slow poleward motion late in the period. The new NHC track forecast is close to the latest HFIP consensus aid HCCA and is of low confidence. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 15.4N 122.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 15.6N 123.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 15.7N 124.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 15.6N 124.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 15.4N 125.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 15.6N 125.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 16.1N 125.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 16.8N 125.7W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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