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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 15
2017-09-15 11:00:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Sep 15 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 150859 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 200 AM PDT Fri Sep 15 2017 Just like it has on several previous occasions already, convection has decreased near the center of the depression. That said, the fact that there even is deep convection near the center is still an improvement compared to 24 hours ago. The estimated intensity remains 30 kt based on an average of TAFB and SAB Dvorak classifications. There is no change in the reasoning behind the intensity forecast, and if convection near the center of the depression can persist, the cyclone may finally begin to slowly intensify. The intensity forecast is still based on a selective consensus of DSHP, LGEM, and HWRF, since the significant intensification shown by the HMON and COAMPS models seems unlikely, given the current structure of the cyclone. A couple recent microwave images indicate that the center remains somewhat ill-defined. My best estimate of the initial motion is 270/4 kt, but this is based in part on continuity from the previous advisory. Little change was required to the track forecast since the depression remains embedded within weak steering flow and is not expected to move very much throughout the 5 day period. The models continue to show a slow northward drift in a couple of days, followed by a slow turn back toward the west as a mid-level ridge begins to build to the northwest. My forecast is close to HCCA, but gives a little extra weight to the ECMWF since it seems to have performed well for the depression so far. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 15.9N 124.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 15.9N 125.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 15.7N 125.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 15.7N 125.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 16.0N 126.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 17.0N 125.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 17.7N 126.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 20/0600Z 17.8N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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