je.st
news
Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 19
2017-09-16 10:53:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 16 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 160853 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 16 2017 An ASCAT pass just before 0600 UTC indicated that the depression has weakened a little bit. Winds of only around 25 kt were present, and since the depression lacks a true inner core, I don't believe that undersampling is a big concern at this time. The initial intensity has therefore been lowered to 25 kt. It is beginning to seem unlikely that the depression will become a tropical storm at any time. The mid-level humidity and SSTs seem sufficient to only support continued pulsating convection and none of the guidance really shows significant strengthening. Since the environment is not expected to change for the next 3 days, the new NHC intensity forecast keeps the cyclone as a tropical depression. Sometime between days 4 and 5, most of the dynamical models show the cyclone becoming a remnant low, though it could happen a little sooner than that. The depression has continued to drift slowly westward. There is no change to the forecast reasoning, and all of the models continue to show very little movement throughout the forecast period. The NHC track forecast is close to a blend of the ECMWF and GFS, and doesn't show the depression moving faster than 3 kt until after it becomes a remnant low around day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 15.8N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 15.7N 126.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 16.1N 126.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 16.6N 126.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 17.0N 126.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 17.7N 126.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 18.0N 128.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 21/0600Z 17.0N 130.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||