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Tropical Depression Five-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

2019-07-22 10:36:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Jul 22 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 220836 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019 200 AM PDT Mon Jul 22 2019 The area of disturbed weather and low pressure system located about 600 nmi southwest of Baja California Sur that the NHC has been monitoring for the past several days has finally developed a sufficient inner-core wind field and enough organized deep convection to be classified as a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on two ASCAT passes between 0430-0530Z that showed 30-31 kt wind vectors in the western quadrant, which corresponds well with the latest TAFB Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of T2.0/30 kt from TAFB. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 360/08 kt due to the lack of a well-defined center until recently. However, the NHC model guidance is in surprisingly good agreement on the cyclone moving northward for the next 36-48 hours around the eastern periphery of a broad mid-level low/trough located to the west of the depression. By 72 h and continuing through 120 h, the cyclone is forecast to move northwestward as a weakening remnant low pressure system. The NHC forecast track lies close to a blend of the various consensus models, and is about midway between the GFS and ECMWF model solutions that bound on the eastern and western fringes, respectively, of the track guidance envelope. Modest north to northeasterly vertical wind shear and occasional intrusions of dry air are expected to hinder development and strengthening for the next 48 hours or so. By late on day 2 and especially by day 3, the cyclone will be moving over sub-26 deg C sea-surface temperatures, which will induce at least steady weakening despite decreasing vertical wind shear conditions during that time. The official intensity forecast is similar to but slightly higher higher than the IVCN and HCCA intensity consensus models, with the latter guidance calling for no strengthening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 15.0N 116.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 16.3N 116.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 17.9N 116.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 19.2N 117.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 20.4N 117.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 22.0N 119.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0600Z 23.2N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/0600Z 24.6N 124.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart

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