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Tropical Depression Five-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2018-06-24 10:32:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Jun 24 2018 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 240832 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052018 200 AM PDT Sun Jun 24 2018 Although convective banding features have become less distinct since the previous advisory, a small mass of deep convection with cold cloud tops of -80C to -83C has developed over and to the south of the previously exposed low-level circulation center. Weak outflow is restricted to the southern semicircle due to modest northeasterly vertical wind shear. The intensity has been maintained at 30 kt based on a consensus satellite intensity estimate of T2.0/30 kt from TAFB, SAB, UW-CIMSS ADT. The depression has continued to move northward and the motion estimate is now 355/09 kt. The latest NHC model guidance is tightly packed around the previous advisory track, so no significant changes were made. The various dynamical models remain in good agreement that the cyclone will move northward around the east side of a mid-/upper-level low for the next 24 hours or so, resulting in the system moving over cooler water and weakening. The more shallow cyclone is then expected to encounter the broad Pacific subtropical ridge to its north and be turned northwestward on Monday, followed by a westerly motion on Tuesday and beyond after becoming embedded in the low-level easterly tradewind flow. The official forecast track is just an extension of the previous advisory track, and lies close to the consensus track models TVCE and HCCA. The SHIPS intensity model guidance is forecasting the vertical shear ahead of the depression to gradually decrease to 5-10 kt during the next 72 hours. However, the cyclone will be moving over sub-26C SSTs in about 24 hours or so, and also be moving into a drier and more stable environment by 36 h and beyond. The result should be only modest strengthening during the next 24 h, followed by steady weakening thereafter. The cyclone is expected to become a remnant low by Wednesday, and possibly dissipate by Thursday or Friday. However, a 120-h point was included in order to maintain continuity with the previous advisory. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and is close to a blend of the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 15.1N 115.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 16.4N 115.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 17.9N 116.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 19.0N 117.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 19.6N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 20.3N 122.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/0600Z 20.2N 126.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/0600Z 19.7N 130.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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