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Tropical Depression Five-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2019-07-22 16:35:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Jul 22 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 221435 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019 800 AM PDT Mon Jul 22 2019 A recent satellite microwave pass indicates that the depression has not gotten any better organized this morning. It appears that northeasterly shear is keeping much of the convection displaced to the west of the center of circulation. Both the latest TAFB Dvorak satellite intensity estimate and UW-CIMMS objective intensity estimate indicate that the system remains a 30-kt depression. The initial motion of the depression is 355/08 kt. Model guidance is in good agreement on a continuation of this general motion for the next 36-48 hours as the depression is steered between a weak mid-level trough to its west, and a building mid-level ridge to its northeast. After 48 hours, the system should begin to weaken and turn toward the northwest as it becomes steered by the lower-level flow. The latest NHC forecast track is very near the previous official forecast and is near the track guidance consensus. Although convection has increased this morning, the shear is preventing the inner core of the depression from becoming better established. This shear is forecast to remain in the 15-20 kt range for the next 48 hours which should continue to prevent any significant intensification during that time frame. Since the other environmental parameters are somewhat favorable for intensification during the next day or so, the depression will likely become a minimal tropical storm later today or tonight. After 48 hours, the system will move over waters below 26 C and into a stable atmospheric environment which should induce steady weakening. By 72 hours, the system is expected to become a remnant low, with dissipation likely by 120 hours. The official intensity forecast is close to the previous NHC forecast, and is near the more reliable intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 15.9N 116.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 17.0N 116.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 18.5N 116.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 19.8N 117.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 20.8N 118.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 22.3N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/1200Z 23.5N 122.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/1200Z 24.0N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch
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