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Tropical Depression Five-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2019-07-22 22:37:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Jul 22 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 222037 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019 200 PM PDT Mon Jul 22 2019 The depression is struggling to become better organized. Visible satellite imagery shows multiple low-level swirls moving about a mean center of circulation, with the deep convection being confined to the southwestern semicircle due to northeasterly shear. Both subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates indicate that the system intensity remains 30 kt. Since the exact center is somewhat difficult to locate, the initial motion is a rather uncertain 345/08kt. There has been a slight westward shift in the majority of the track guidance, and this is possibly due to them steering a weaker system than previously forecast. The depression is expected to continue to move north-northwest for the next 24-36 hours between a weak mid-level trough to its west, and a building mid-level ridge to its northeast. After 36 hours, the system should make a gradual turn toward the west-northwest as the cyclone weakens and becomes carried by the low-level steering currents. There is a shrinking window of opportunity for the depression to get its act together before it moves over SSTs below 26 C and into a stable atmospheric environment in 24-36 hours. Additionally, the 15 to 20 kt of shear currently over the system may prevent it from intensifying any further. However, the official forecast calls for the depression to intensify slightly over marginal SSTs into a weak tropical storm tonight, followed by a weakening trend beginning in about 24 hours. The cyclone should weaken into a remnant low by 48 hours and then dissipate late this week. The intensity forecast through 24 hours remains the same as the previous advisory, but it has been lowered beyond 24 hours and is in agreement with the majority of the intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 16.7N 116.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 17.8N 116.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 19.1N 117.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 20.2N 118.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 21.0N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1800Z 22.1N 121.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch
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