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Tropical Depression Five-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2019-07-23 04:36:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Jul 22 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 230236 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019 800 PM PDT Mon Jul 22 2019 This evening's visible satellite presentation consists of a rather ragged and shapeless cloud pattern with multiple cloud swirls seen rotating around the mean surface circulation center. The Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB remain unchanged (T2.0/30 kt) as well as the initial intensity. There are no changes to the forecast intensity philosophy. Both the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS indicate that the northerly shear currently impinging on the northeastern portion of the system will persist through the forecast period. This inhibiting wind pattern along with cooler oceanic surface temperatures, ahead of the predicted track, should cause the cyclone to degenerate into a remnant low in 48 hours with dissipation in 4 days or less. The only model that shows strengthening to tropical storm status is the COAMPS-TC. For continuity purposes, I've elected to maintain this slight 12-24 hour intensification period in the official forecast. Because of the ill-defined circulation, the initial motion is estimated to be a bit uncertain north-northwestward, or 345/7 kt, within the low- to mid-level steering flow produced by high pressure located over the southwestern United States. The depression should continue moving in a general northwestward direction toward a break in the ridge to the northwest of the cyclone during the next 2 days. Afterward, as the system begins to weaken, a turn toward the west-northwest, within the tradewind flow, is anticipated. The model guidance is tightly clustered with the exception being the left outlier UKMET. The only adjustment in the NHC forecast is, again, a shift slightly to the left of the previous advisory, but follows both the TVCE and HCCA consensus models closely. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 17.6N 116.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 18.5N 117.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 19.6N 117.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 20.5N 118.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 21.2N 119.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/0000Z 22.5N 122.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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