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Tropical Depression Five Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-07-04 16:51:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Jul 04 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 041451 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052020 1100 AM AST Sat Jul 04 2020 Late yesterday, a small low pressure system developed near the end of a boundary over the western Atlantic. The low persisted overnight while producing convection that has shown increasing signs of organization. Although the low's center has recently become obscured, earlier one-minute visible imagery confirmed that it is well-defined. The system therefore meets the necessary criteria to be designated as a tropical cyclone. A TAFB Dvorak classification of 2.0 is the basis for the 30 kt initial intensity. The depression is moving quickly toward the east-northeast, caught in the flow between a mid-level ridge to its south and a a trough to its north. This steering pattern is expected to be fairly stable for the next day or so, and the guidance is in good agreement that the cyclone will continue on its current general heading with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. The NHC track forecast closely follows the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids. The depression has a sheared appearance, with no convection northwest of its low-level center. A combination of strong upper-level westerly winds and dry mid-level air to the northwest are likely the cause of this, and it is unlikely that the cyclone will get much better organized during the next day or two. That said, some minimal strengthening is possible, even if only due to the expected increase of the cyclone's forward speed. The NHC intensity forecast is based on a consensus of the HWRF, HMON, and GFS models. It is worth noting that the statistical guidance indicates more strengthening is possible, but this is not currently supported by any dynamical models. There is less agreement on the system's future beyond the weekend. It could open into a trough and dissipate or persist long enough to undergo extratropical transition. Since this is the first advisory, the official forecast is somewhat conservative and maintains the system as a closed low for 60 h, but it could certainly dissipate sooner than that. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 31.1N 68.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 32.1N 66.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 34.0N 63.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 36.4N 59.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 39.2N 52.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 07/0000Z 41.7N 46.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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