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Tropical Depression Five Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-07-04 22:31:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Jul 04 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 042031 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052020 500 PM AST Sat Jul 04 2020 Overall, the depression's organization hasn't changed much since the last advisory. Cloud tops have warmed a little, but the overall pattern is the same, with deep convection limited to the south of the center. Late-arriving ASCAT-C data from earlier this morning showed max winds of 25-30 kt southeast of the depression's center, and is the primary basis for maintaining the 30 kt intensity. No changes of significance were made to the NHC track or intensity forecast. The official forecast is still based on the track and intensity consensus, with extra weight given to the dynamical models for the intensity. The depression is forecast to accelerate east-northeastward in the flow between a trough to its north and a ridge to its south. A combination of shear and dry air will likely prevent it from getting better organized, and no substantial strengthening is expected. By Monday morning, baroclinic forcing could allow the system to strengthen slightly before it undergoes extratropical transition or merges with a non-tropical weather system. Alternatively, the system could open into a trough on Sunday as its forward speed increases, as depicted by most of the global models. Since most of those models also show the low reforming a day later before it becomes extratropical, the NHC forecast carries the system as a continuous cyclone for the sake of simplicity. It should be stressed that the rain and gusty winds associated with the system as it passes near Bermuda overnight will be the same regardless of the state of its circulation. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 31.8N 67.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 33.1N 65.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 35.3N 61.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 38.3N 56.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 41.0N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 07/0600Z 44.0N 43.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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