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Tropical Depression Five Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-07-05 10:36:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Jul 05 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 050836 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052020 500 AM AST Sun Jul 05 2020 Convection has increased in association with Tropical Depression Five during the past several hours, with satellite imagery showing cooling cloud tops near the center and data from the radar on Bermuda indicating some banding. An earlier scatterometer overpass showed 25-30 kt winds to the southeast of the center, and so far sustained winds at the various automated stations on Bermuda have been in the 20-30 kt range. Based on this, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The initial motion is now northeastward or 055/17. The cyclone should accelerate to the northeast or east-northeast over the next couple of days as it encounters the stronger mid-latitude westerlies. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, although the guidance has trended faster for this advisory. Based on this, the new forecast track is similar in direction, but faster than, the previous forecast. Some strengthening could occur today, and the forecast peak intensity of 35 kt is a little below the intensity consensus. The guidance now suggests that extratropical transition should occur by 36 h, and the the forecast has been adjusted to reflect that. It remains possible that the depression will open up into a trough later today, but for now this forecast maintains continuity with the previous one in maintaining the system as a cyclone. Locally heavy rain and gusty winds should persist on Bermuda for the next few hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 33.3N 64.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 35.4N 61.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 38.3N 56.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 41.4N 49.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 07/0600Z 44.4N 43.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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