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Tropical Depression Five Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-07-05 22:32:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Jul 05 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 052032 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052020 500 PM AST Sun Jul 05 2020 The depressions cloud pattern has become less organized today, with increasing separation between the remaining convective activity and the low-level center. The circulation also appears to be less defined, but the various ASCAT instruments missed the center late this morning and were not helpful in determining if a well-defined center still exits. Data from the ASCAT-C instrument revealed some 25-30 kt wind vectors over the southeastern portion of the system, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The depression is moving northeastward or 055/23 kt. The system should continue to accelerate northeastward or east-northeastward during the next day or so. Given the expected acceleration and current structure, it would not be surprising if the system degenerated into a trough of low pressure later today or tonight. The depression or its remnants, however, are forecast to transition into an extratropical cyclone on Monday. Little change in strength is forecast although it is possible that the system will produce tropical-storm-force winds by the time it becomes extratropical on Monday as it accelerates and gains some baroclinic support. Only slight adjustments were made to the previous NHC track and intensity forecast, and the new official forecast is near the middle of the dynamical model envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 35.8N 60.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 37.9N 56.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 41.1N 48.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 07/0600Z 44.5N 41.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 07/1800Z 48.0N 34.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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