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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2019-07-12 22:30:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Jul 12 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 122030 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042019 300 PM MDT Fri Jul 12 2019 Convection associated with an area of low pressure located south of the southwestern coast of Mexico has increased substantially since last night. Furthermore, ASCAT data from 1630 UTC show that the low has developed a small but well-defined center with maximum winds of 25-30 kt. The system now meets the criteria for a tropical cyclone, and advisories have been initiated on Tropical Depression Four-E. The initial intensity is 30 kt, based on the ASCAT data. The depression is being sheared by strong upper-level easterly winds and is not expected to last long. In fact all of the dynamical models suggest that the depression will weaken and become a post-tropical low in about 36 h, if not sooner. The statistical guidance is a little higher, but still generally agrees that the depression will not strengthen much. The official forecast shows the cyclone becoming a short-lived tropical storm and then slowly weakening through 48 h, and is generally close to IVCN. The depression is moving west-northwestward, or 290/11 kt along the southwestern periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge. There is surprisingly little agreement in the track guidance on the track of the depression for the brief period it survives, but they all generally show it moving near its current heading for a day or so. A turn toward the west is expected by Sunday as the cyclone weakens and becomes shallow. I have no reason to favor any one solution over another at this point, so the NHC forecast closely follows the consensus at all forecast times. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 15.1N 107.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 16.0N 109.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 17.1N 111.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 17.7N 113.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 18.1N 115.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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