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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-06-30 04:32:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 300232 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042020 900 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2020 The circulation associated with the area of low pressure located southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has become better defined over the past 24 hours, and the system has maintained convection for much of the past 12 hours. Although the convection has not been particularly well organized at times today, a new burst of convection developed just northeast of the low-level center late this afternoon and has been persistent over the past several hours. Based on these observations and Dvorak T-number of 1.5 from TAFB and 2.0 from SAB, the system is being designated as a 30-kt tropical depression. The system is expected to be a short- lived tropical cyclone as it will be moving into an area of increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear and over SSTs of around 24 degrees Celsius by Tuesday morning. As a result, the depression is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Tuesday. The NHC wind speed prediction follows the trend of the intensity guidance and also calls for the remnant low to dissipate in 2 to 3 days. The depression is moving slowly northwestward around the western portion of a mid-level ridge that extends westward over central Mexico. The cyclone should continue moving on the same general heading with some reduction in forward speed as it weakens and is steered by the weaker low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 20.5N 112.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 21.1N 113.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 21.4N 113.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 01/1200Z 21.6N 113.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/0000Z 21.8N 113.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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