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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-06-18 10:59:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 180859 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 Over the past 12 h convection has blossomed and has become better organized over the broad low we have been monitoring a couple hundred miles to the south of Acapulco, Mexico. Overnight scatterometer-derived winds indicated that the system has acquired a closed circulation with max winds in the northeast quadrant of 30 kt. The most recent 06z Dvorak satellite estimates were T1.5/25 kt from TAFB and T2.0/30 kt from SAB. Since that time, deep cold convection has continued to increase near the estimated center with improved banding both the north and southwest quadrants. Due to this continued improvement in satellite imagery, this system is being upgraded to a 30-kt tropical depression this advisory. Environmental conditions appear to be favorable for additional intensification over the next 24-36 h as the storm reaches the Mexican coastline with high mid-level relative humidity, only light to moderate vertical wind shear, and very warm sea-surface temperatures between 29 to 30 C. Thus the latest NHC forecast indicates at least steady intensification, and TD4-E could become a strong tropical storm as it approaches the Mexican coastline. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus (HCCA) guidance. The estimated current motion of this depression is at 285/7 kt. Currently the system is being steered by a narrow mid-level ridge north of Mexico. However, this ridge is forecast to weaken and allow the storm to gain latitude over the next 24-36 h. The latest NHC forecast takes the depression to the coast of Mexico by late Saturday. This forecast is in fairly good agreement with the latest guidance and lies closest to the most recent ECMWF run, though spread remains between models that keep the system just off the Mexican coast like the UKMET versus the HWRF and GFS models which take the storm further east and inland over Mexico sooner. Given this track forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch for the coast of Mexico from Cabo Corrientes southward to Lazaro Cardenas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 14.4N 101.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 14.8N 102.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 15.7N 103.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 17.5N 104.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 20.1N 105.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 20/1800Z 23.1N 105.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 21/0600Z 25.4N 106.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Blake
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