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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2019-07-13 10:32:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sat Jul 13 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 130832 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042019 300 AM MDT Sat Jul 13 2019 The depression has a ragged and sheared appearance. The low-level center briefly became exposed several hours ago before a burst of deep convection developed over the southwestern semicircle. The subjective satellite intensity estimates continue to support a 30-kt system, which is the initial intensity for this advisory. The convective maximum over warm SSTs will likely maintain this current increase in the convection through mid morning. Thereafter, the circulation is expected to entrain stable air to its west while continuing to be impacted by 20 kt of northeasterly shear. This should cause a weakening trend to begin later on today or tonight. By Sunday, the system is expected to become a remnant low devoid of deep convection. Shortly thereafter, the low will degenerate into a trough. The official intensity forecast is in agreement with all available intensity guidance, with just some minor variations in timing noted between the model solutions. The current motion is 305/13 kt. The aforementioned exposed center allowed for a northeastward adjustment of the cyclone's position over the past 12 hours or so. This northwestward motion is expected to continue while the system maintains its convection. Once the convection dissipates, the system will become steered more toward the west-northwest to west in the lower-level steering flow. The latest forecast track is very near the previous official forecast and is near the track model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 16.8N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 17.6N 111.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 18.0N 114.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 18.3N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Cangialosi
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