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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Discussion Number 6
2019-07-14 04:37:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 140237 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042019 900 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2019 The depression lost essentially all of its deep convection a few hours ago, as strong easterly shear has continued to disrupt the system. Recently, a few cells have formed near the center. Since the cyclone is over marginally warm sea surface temperatures, additional new convection could still re-develop in the circulation overnight. However, it seems likely that the system will degenerate into a remnant low within 24 hours. The motion continues west-northwestward, or 290/13 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should cause a turn toward the west tomorrow, and eventually a west-southwestward motion is likely as the shallow circulation follows the low-level tradewind flow. The official track forecast is somewhat south of the dynamical model consensus, and close to the previous NHC track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 17.7N 113.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 18.1N 115.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 18.5N 117.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 15/1200Z 18.6N 119.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/0000Z 18.0N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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