Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 26 2020
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 261445
TCDEP4
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020
800 AM PDT Wed Aug 26 2020
Earlier scatterometer data and GOES-16 Proxy-VIS satellite
imagery indicate that the area of low pressure located several
hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula has acquired sufficient convective organization and a
well-defined surface circulation, and is now classified as a
tropical cyclone. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates and the
aforementioned scatterometer data support an initial wind speed
of 30 kt for this advisory.
Moderate to strong east-northeasterly shear, the same inhibiting
upper wind pattern that is affecting depression Thirteen-E, is
forecast to hamper significant development through the entire
forecast period. Therefore, only modest strengthening in the
next 24 hours is expected, which agrees with the statistical-
dynamical guidance and the large-scale models.
The depression is moving rather slowly toward the northeast, or
040/2 kt. The low to mid-level steering synoptic pattern consists
of a cyclonic gyre stretching southwestward from Hurricane Laura
over central Mexico and into the eastern Pacific. This feature
should cause the depression to continue in a northeastward general
direction at a relatively slow pace through Friday. Afterward, a
gradual turn toward the north-northwest and west-northwest is
expected as high pressure currently over the southwestern U.S.
builds westward over the Baja California peninsula and adjacent
eastern Pacific. The NHC official forecast is a reflection of a
blend of the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/1500Z 15.4N 117.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 15.8N 116.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 16.4N 116.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 17.0N 115.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 17.8N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 29/0000Z 18.6N 114.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 19.6N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 21.4N 114.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 31/1200Z 22.4N 116.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Roberts