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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2018-08-15 10:34:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018 131 WTPZ44 KNHC 150834 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018 Satellite images indicate that the depression is gradually getting better organized with deep convection increasing near the center and in curved bands over the western semicircle. The initial intensity remains 30 kt, in agreement with the Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, but it would not be surprising if the system was a little stronger. The depression continues to move just south of due west at about 12 kt. A deep-layer ridge situated to the north of the cyclone should keep the system moving on a general westward path at about the same forward speed during the next couple of days. After that time, the models suggest that a mid- to upper-level low will cut off and cause a break in the ridge. This change in the flow pattern should cause the tropical cyclone to move toward the west-northwest in the 3- to 5-day time frame. The models have generally shifted slightly to the left this cycle, and the NHC forecast has been nudged in that direction. The environmental conditions appear conducive for the cyclone to strengthen during the next several days with the wind shear expected to remain low, less than 10 kt, mid-level humidities fairly high, and SSTs marginally warm. The intensity models respond to these favorable conditions, and all of them now show the system becoming a hurricane within the next few days. The NHC intensity forecast follows that theme, and shows a faster rate of strengthening than the previous forecast. This prediction lies closest to the HCCA and ICON models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 10.8N 122.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 10.6N 124.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 10.6N 126.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 10.8N 128.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 11.1N 130.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 12.3N 135.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 13.8N 140.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 20/0600Z 15.2N 144.1W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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