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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-08-26 10:38:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 260838 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 400 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 Satellite imagery indicates that convection is increasing near the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen-E, but it is occurring in bands that are not showing a lot of curvature at this time. Satellite intensity estimates are currently 35 kt from SAB and 30 kt from TAFB, and the CIMSS ADT and satellite consensus techniques are also in the 30-35 kt range. In addition, earlier scatterometer data showed 25-30 kt winds, although there was no data close to the center. The initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 290/7 kt. The cyclone is being steered generally westward along the southern extent of a mid-level ridge over the south-central United States. A deep-layer trough over the western U.S. is forecast to weaken this ridge during the next couple of days, with the cyclone moving northwestward to north-northwestward as a result. The track guidance continues to show a motion close to the coast of southwestern Mexico between 48-72 h, and the GFS and Canadian models on the eastern side of the guidance show a landfall in Mexico. The ECMWF model is farther to the left and keeps the system offshore of Mexico, while the UKMET is between these extremes and keeps the center offshore of mainland Mexico before taking the system near the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula. The forecast track is similar to the previous track, following the consensus models in keeping the center offshore of mainland Mexico before coming near Baja California Sur. However, there remains above average uncertainty in the track forecast, and interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico and in Baja California Sur should closely monitor the progress of the system and potential changes to the forecast. The depression is currently being affected by northeasterly vertical shear, which is likely to persist for another 24 h. After that time, conditions appear favorable for strengthening if the center stays far enough offshore. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast, and it lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. The 48-120 h portion of the forecast again has lower than average confidence due to the possibility of land interaction. Key Messages: 1. The depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm on Thursday and be near hurricane intensity by Saturday or Saturday night. While the core of the storm is currently expected to pass near but offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico, strong winds and heavy rainfall, possibly resulting in flash floods and mudslides, could affect portions of that area over the next several days. Interests in this area should closely monitor the progress of this system and updates to the forecast. 2. The system is forecast to pass near the southern portion of Baja California Sur as a hurricane early next week, bringing a risk of wind and rain impacts to that area. Given the above average uncertainty in the forecast, it is too soon to determine the magnitude and location of these potential impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 12.0N 100.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 12.8N 101.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 13.9N 102.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 15.2N 104.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 16.5N 105.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 28/1800Z 18.0N 105.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 19.5N 106.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 30/0600Z 21.5N 108.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 31/0600Z 23.5N 111.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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