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Tropical Depression Gamma Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-10-05 22:34:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 052033 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Gamma Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020 The last couple of legs of the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft mission and recent METOP-A and C scatterometer passes support lowering Gamma's initial intensity to 30 kt for this advisory. Conventional satellite imagery reveals that the cyclone has been devoid of deep convection for nearly 10 hours and is on its way to becoming a post-tropical remnant low. Strong southerly shear and a stable, relatively dry surrounding air mass should prevent any significant convective regeneration as the system approaches the northern coast of the northwestern Yucatan peninsula tomorrow. After the remnants of Gamma makes landfall, dissipation is likely to occur Wednesday as larger, Tropical Storm Delta approaches the Yucatan Channel. The initial motion is estimated to be southwestward, or 230/4 kt. A continued southwestward or west-southwestward motion is expected through Wednesday morning while moving inland over the northern Mexican State of Yucatan. The NHC forecast track is basically an update of this morning's package and is based on the various multi-model consensus aids. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Gamma is expected to produce areas of heavy rainfall through midweek over portions of southeast Mexico, including the Mexican states of Yucatan, Campeche, and Tabasco. This rainfall could result in areas of flash flooding. 2. Gusty winds are likely along portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula later today through Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 22.1N 88.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 21.6N 88.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 06/1800Z 20.9N 89.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 07/0600Z 20.0N 90.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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