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Tropical Depression Gilma Forecast Discussion Number 10
2018-07-29 04:35:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Jul 28 2018 882 WTPZ43 KNHC 290235 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Gilma Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082018 800 PM PDT Sat Jul 28 2018 Gilma's structure has not changed much over the past six hours. Deep convection remains limited to small, but frequent, bursts just east of the depression's exposed low-level center. The initial intensity has been held at 30 kt, based primarily on continuity, but this is also supported by the most recent Dvorak classification from TAFB. No change has been made to the official intensity forecast. The wind shear, as measured in SHIPS diagnostic data from the GFS and ECMWF, is already over 30 kt and is forecast to continue increasing over the next day or two. In addition, the tropical cyclone will be moving through a progressively drier environment during the next couple of days, which should also contribute to the suppression of deep convection. Gilma is therefore still forecast to become a remnant low tomorrow, and then dissipate entirely by early next week. The depression is moving a little quicker than previously anticipated, and the initial motion estimate is 285/12. Aside from the faster initial speed, there is no change to the reasoning behind the track forecast. Gilma is still expected to turn back toward the west and slow its forward speed for the next couple of days while being steered primarily by the low-level flow associated with the subtropical ridge to the north. The NHC track forecast is very close to the various consensus models, and minimal changes were made from the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 16.1N 135.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 16.3N 137.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 16.4N 139.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 30/1200Z 16.3N 141.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/0000Z 16.1N 143.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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