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Tropical Depression Gilma Forecast Discussion Number 12
2018-07-29 16:41:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 29 2018 256 WTPZ43 KNHC 291441 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Gilma Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082018 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 29 2018 Gilma is on its way in becoming a remnant low. Very strong west-northwesterly shear has pushed all of the associated convection well away from the center, leaving a completely exposed low-level swirl. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt, in agreement with a blend of the Dvorak Final T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. Now that Gilma is located to the west of an upper-level trough axis, strong west-northwesterly shear is expected to continue. These hostile winds aloft, plus marginal SSTs and dry air, should cause Gilma to become a remnant low later today and ultimately degenerate into a trough in 2 to 3 days. The depression is moving westward at 12 kt, steered by the flow on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge. This general motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected until the system dissipates. Little change was made to the previous NHC track forecast, and this one lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 15.9N 138.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 16.0N 140.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 30/1200Z 15.9N 142.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 31/0000Z 15.7N 144.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/1200Z 15.5N 147.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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