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Tropical Depression Gilma Forecast Discussion Number 6
2018-07-28 04:36:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018 023 WTPZ43 KNHC 280236 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Gilma Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082018 800 PM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018 The satellite presentation of Gilma has not changed much over the past several hours. Strong west-northwesterly shear continues to affect tropical cyclone, and deep convection is limited to the southeast quadrant of the otherwise exposed low-level circulation. The initial intensity has been held at 30 kt based on earlier ASCAT data, but recent Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB suggest this could be generous. Virtually no change has been made to the track or intensity forecasts. All of the dynamical models indicate that the shear affecting Gilma will increase through the next several days, and the cyclone will be moving into a drier environment. Continued weakening is therefore still forecast, in line with all of the intensity guidance. While the NHC forecast currently shows that Gilma will be a closed low through 72 hours, it is entirely possible that Gilma will dissipate sooner than currently indicated due to the hostile environment. As expected, Gilma has slowed slightly and the initial motion estimate is now 280/13 kt. A continued west to west-northwest heading with a decrease in forward speed is still forecast for the next few days while the shallow depression is steered primarily by the low-level flow associated with the subtropical high to the north-northeast. The NHC forecast remains in close agreement with the various track consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 15.0N 131.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 15.2N 132.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 15.7N 134.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 16.2N 136.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 16.5N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/0000Z 16.5N 142.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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