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Tropical Depression Gilma Forecast Discussion Number 7
2018-07-28 10:35:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Jul 28 2018 640 WTPZ43 KNHC 280835 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Gilma Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082018 200 AM PDT Sat Jul 28 2018 Gilma continues to be affected by strong westerly vertical shear, with the low level center remaining exposed to the northwest of an area of weakly banded convection. Satellite intensity estimates are in the 25-35 kt range, so the initial intensity remains a possibly generous 30 kt. The initial motion is 280/11. The low- to mid-level subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone should continue steering the cyclone generally westward to west-northwestward for the next three days with some decrease in forward speed. The new track forecast is similar to the previous forecast and lies a little to the north of the center of the guidance envelope and the various consensus models. The ongoing shear is due to an upper-level trough just to the west and northwest of the tropical cyclone. The dynamical models suggest that this trough will move westward in close proximity to Gilma, which will allow the shear to continue. In addition, the cyclone should be moving into a drier airmass during the next several days. These factors should cause Gilma to weaken and eventually dissipate during the forecast period even though it will stay over warm water. The new intensity forecast is mostly an update of the previous forecast, and it now calls for Gilma to decay to a remnant low by 36 h and dissipate completely after 72 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 15.1N 132.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 15.4N 133.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 16.0N 135.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 16.3N 137.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/0600Z 16.4N 139.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/0600Z 16.5N 143.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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