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Tropical Depression Gilma Forecast Discussion Number 8

2018-07-28 16:32:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 28 2018 708 WTPZ43 KNHC 281432 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Gilma Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082018 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 28 2018 Despite being in an environment of strong westerly shear, Gilma is maintaining its status as a tropical cyclone. Deep convection has been persisting on the eastern side of the system, and this activity has even moved a little closer to the center, aided by upper-level diffluence. The initial wind speed is held at 30 kt, in agreement with the Dvorak classifications of 2.0/30 kt from TAFB and SAB. This intensity estimate is a little lower than the 2.5/35 kt ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. Westerly shear of about 30 kt is likely to continue during the next few days, and the global models indicate that the upper-level flow should become less diffluent as Gilma approaches the Central Pacific basin. These hostile winds aloft combined with cooler SSTs and a more stable air mass should cause Gilma to gradually weaken during the next few days. The NHC forecast continues to show Gilma becoming a remnant low in about 36 hours and degenerating into a trough by day 4, following the trend in the model guidance. The depression is moving westward at 10 kt steered by the flow on the south side of a mid-level ridge. A west to west-northwest motion is expected during the next few days as the increasingly shallow system moves within the low- to mid-level flow. The NHC track forecast is a little south of the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 15.2N 133.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 15.4N 134.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 15.7N 136.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 15.8N 137.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/1200Z 15.7N 140.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/1200Z 15.4N 144.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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