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Tropical Depression Gilma Forecast Discussion Number 9
2018-07-28 22:32:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Jul 28 2018 372 WTPZ43 KNHC 282032 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Gilma Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082018 200 PM PDT Sat Jul 28 2018 Increasing westerly shear is taking its toll on Gilma. Deep convection that has been persisting on the eastern side of the system has become farther separated from the center, with an exposed low-level swirl centered more than 75 n mi from the edge of the convection. Although the system appears to be a little weaker than earlier today, there is no scatterometer data to confirm that. Therefore, the initial wind speed has been held at 30 kt, in agreement with the Dvorak classifications of 2.0/30 kt from both TAFB and SAB. Westerly shear of about 30 to 35 kt is expected to continue during the next few days, and the global models indicate that the upper-level flow should become less diffluent as Gilma passes west of the axis of an upper-level trough tonight. The combination of these hostile winds aloft, cooler SSTs, and a more stable air mass should cause Gilma to gradually weaken, and the NHC forecast now shows Gilma becoming a remnant low in about 24 hours and degenerating into a trough by day 4. Gilma could become a remnant low even sooner than currently forecast, as the unfavorable upper-level flow to the west of the upper trough axis could completely shear off the deep convection from the center. The depression made a jog to the northwest during the day today, but it is expected to resume a west to west-northwestward motion at around 10 kt through tonight, steered by mid-level ridging to the north. Thereafter, as the system becomes increasingly shallow, it should turn to the west, steered by low-level ridging to its northwest. The NHC forecast track is very close to the previous forecast, and it is close to the clustering of the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 15.8N 134.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 16.0N 135.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 16.3N 137.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 30/0600Z 16.3N 139.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/1800Z 16.1N 141.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/1800Z 15.7N 145.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto
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