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Tropical Depression Henri Forecast Discussion Number 29
2021-08-23 04:44:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 230243 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Henri Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 Henri has continued to weaken over land and synoptic surface observations indicate that its maximum winds have decreased to near 25 kt. A little more weakening is likely during the next 48 hours, and simulated satellite imagery from the global models indicate that the system will be post-tropical after its expected re-emergence into the Atlantic in 36 hours or so. Beyond 48 hours the dynamical guidance suggests that the system will lose its identity. Satellite imagery and surface data indicate that the center is moving slowly west-northwestward, or 290/7 kt. Henri is interacting with another cyclonic circulation over the northeastern United States. As a result of this interaction, the tropical cyclone is expected to briefly come to a halt overnight, turn toward the east-northeast on Monday, and continue an east-northeastward motion into Tuesday. The official forecast track is similar to the dynamical model consensus, TVCN. Although Henri's winds are weakening, the cyclone will still continue to be a prolific rain producer, resulting in significant flooding across southern New England and portions of the northern mid-Atlantic states for the next day or two. This is the last advisory by the National Hurricane Center on Henri. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 5 AM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT3, WMO header WTNT33 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will continue to lead to considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for additional minor to isolated moderate river flooding over portions of Long Island, New England, eastern New York, New Jersey and northeast Pennsylvania. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 41.9N 73.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 12H 23/1200Z 42.1N 73.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 24/0000Z 42.4N 72.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 24/1200Z 42.8N 69.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 25/0000Z 43.4N 65.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch [ more ]
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