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Tropical Depression Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 25
2021-08-05 22:31:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Aug 05 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 052031 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Hilda Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 200 PM PDT Thu Aug 05 2021 Stubborn Hilda refuses to go away. Convection has been pulsing since the previous advisory with cloud tops fluctuating between -30C and -60C in the northeastern quadrant. However, this convection hasn't mixed higher winds downward into the boundary based on a 1634Z ASCAT-A scatterometer pass, which showed 30-31-kt wind vectors north of the center and outside of the convection. The initial intensity is being maintained at 30 kt for this advisory based on the aforementioned ASCAT surface wind data. Gradual weakening should occur now that Hilda is firmly located over sub-23 deg C sea-surface temperatures and will be moving into a drier and more stable air mass. Visible satellite imagery already shows an extensive field of cold-air stratocumulus clouds being entrained into much of the low-level circulation. Hilda is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low tonight or early Friday, and open up into a trough by the weekend, well east of the Hawaiian Islands. The initial motion estimate is 300/11 kt. Hilda should continue on a west-northwestward trajectory for the next couple of days, being steered by a deep-layer subtropical ridge to the north. The latest NHC track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track, and lies down the middle of the tightly packed consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 21.5N 131.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 22.2N 132.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 23.0N 135.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/0600Z 23.7N 137.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/1800Z 24.4N 139.3W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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