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Tropical Depression Iota Forecast Discussion Number 20
2020-11-18 09:38:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020 309 WTNT41 KNHC 180838 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Iota Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 300 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020 Deep convection is no longer occurring near Iota's center, but curved broken bands of convection still exist within 100 n mi in the northern semicircle. For that reason, Iota is being maintained as a tropical cyclone. Earlier ASCAT and ScatSat scatterometer data between 0200-0300 UTC indicated surface winds of 30-32 kt offshore the north-central coast of Honduras, while tropical-storm-force wind gusts were noted in surface observations along the north coast of Honduras. As a result, the intensity was maintained at 35 kt at the 0600 UTC synoptic time. Since then, however, winds have decreased along the coast and offshore, which justify making Iota a 30-kt tropical depression at the 0900 UTC advisory time. Therefore, the Tropical Storm Warning for the northern coast of Honduras has been discontinued. The initial motion estimate is now 255/11 kt. Iota or its remnants should continue moving west-southwestward across El Salvador, possibly emerging over the eastern North Pacific Ocean as a post-tropical cyclone before dissipation occurs by late today. At this time, most of the available NHC model guidance does not show regeneration over the eastern Pacific, with only the HWRF and HMON regional models showing brief redevelopment to tropical depression status on Thursday after Iota degenerates to a remnant low later today. However, this is considered a low probability alternate scenario due to unfavorable upper-level winds expected across the eastern North Pacific. Iota is still expected to produce very serious flash flooding and mud slides. These hazards could result in potentially catastrophic effects, especially when compounded upon Hurricane Eta's destruction from a couple of weeks ago. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is expected through Thursday across portions of Central America due to heavy rainfall from Iota. Flooding and mudslides across portions of Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala could be exacerbated by saturated soils in place, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 13.7N 88.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND EL SALVADOR 12H 18/1800Z 13.0N 89.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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