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Tropical Depression Karina Forecast Discussion Number 16
2020-09-16 22:39:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 162039 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Karina Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Karina has significantly devolved over the past day or so as it has moved into an increasingly hostile environment characterized by cool waters, dry mid-level air and increasing southerly vertical wind shear. While latest visible satellite images show a well-developed low-cloud swirl, infrared imagery shows a lack of deep convection, and the initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt for this advisory, supported by a 1730Z ASCAT-C pass. The system is moving toward the northwest at about 7 kt, steered by a mid-level ridge to its east. With significant deep convection not expected to redevelop, Karina is expected to degenerate to a remnant low by tonight, and the increasingly shallow remnant will be steered by a low-level high centered to the northwest. This will cause a turn toward the west, and then southwest, before dissipation occurs in a couple of days. The new official forecast closely follows the previous and is supported by global model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 23.0N 124.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 23.5N 125.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 17/1800Z 23.9N 126.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/0600Z 24.0N 127.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1800Z 23.7N 129.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/0600Z 23.3N 130.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Birchard
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