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Tropical Depression Mindy Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-09-09 10:42:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 090842 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Mindy Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021 500 AM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021 Doppler radar data and surface observations show that the center of Mindy has moved inland over southern Georgia overnight. Now that more of the circulation has moved over land, the cyclone has weakened and the latest observations indicate that Mindy has become a tropical depression with an estimated intensity of 30 kt. Mindy is forecast to move over the western Atlantic by this afternoon, but strong southwesterly shear is expected to prevent re-strengthening. In fact, the shear is forecast to increase to around 35 kt by tonight, and this is likely to strip away any remaining deep convection and cause gradual weakening. Mindy is forecast to become a remnant low in about 48 hours and dissipate by day 3, but given the expected shear both of those events could occur sooner. Mindy continues to move briskly northeastward or 055/17 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast philosophy since the previous advisory. Mindy should continue to move northeastward near the southern portion of a deep-layer trough that will be moving across the eastern United States today. Once the trough begins to lift northeastward late tonight and Friday, Mindy should slow down and turn east-northeastward until dissipation occurs. The guidance envelope has shifted slightly northward this cycle, and the updated NHC track forecast has been modified accordingly. The new NHC track lies between the GFEX consensus aid and the GFS ensemble mean. Key Messages: 1. Mindy is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of southern Georgia and coastal South Carolina this morning. This rainfall may produce isolated to scattered flash, urban, and small stream flooding. 2. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are possible across portions of southeastern Georgia this morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 30.8N 83.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 31.9N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 10/0600Z 33.0N 75.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 33.9N 72.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 34.4N 69.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 11/1800Z 34.8N 67.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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